The Novell-Microsoft partnership and its impact on open-source software

IT industry observers greeted media reports Thursday of an agreement between Microsoft and Novell to foster Windows-Linux interoperability with mixed reactions. As expected, the signatories were generally upbeat about the agreement. A few Linux advocates, foremost of them Open-Source Development Labs CEO Stuart Cohen, had similar positive reactions. A majority, however, voiced their reservations about the agreement.

At first glance, the partnership seemed a victory for Linux, in general, and Novell, in particular. The fact that Microsoft will partner with long-time rival Novell is recognition of Linux's inroads in the enterprise server market, if not on the desktop. Up front, Microsoft will pay royalties to Novell, and vice versa, to preempt any potential liability arising from the use of each other's software patents. In addition, Microsoft will provide discount vouchers for Novell's flagship Suse Linux Enterprise Server to its existing customers.

However, once you read the reports more closely, one notices that it is Microsoft who will benefit the most from the deal. And the biggest loser? Not Novell, for surely it would benefit to a great extent as well, but other companies selling/marketing/supporting Linux. Why? A side note, if you will, in the terms of the agreement yields the answers.

Under the agreement, and in exchange for royalties, Microsoft guarantees the freedom of individual, open-source developers as well as developers working on Novell's commercial and open-source Linux products from any legal action related to its vast array of software patents. By extension, the same guarantee applies to Novell customers. Thus, enterprise customers wary of the legal implications that may arise from their use of Linux will veer towards Novell. The market share of other Linux vendors will tumble.

The other, and far more important, implication here is that other companies that make money from selling and supporting Linux may be subject to legal action. The same goes for the developers and customers of these companies.

With Novell out of the way, will we see a string of lawsuits from Microsoft against other Linux vendors in the next few months? I hope not. An even more sombre outlook will arise if Microsoft wins these cases. What will happen to these companies? Will they survive? In the end, will it be only Novell that will be left standing? When that time comes, Microsoft will have won the OS wars.